Britain Was Too Warm to Buy a Coat and Too Worried to Buy Anything Else, So It Bought Petrol at Record Prices

Britain got its September shopping receipt on Friday and found it had spent the month doing what it does best: standing in a warm room, refusing to buy a coat.

The Office for National Statistics said retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in September, against economists' forecast of a 0.1% dip. Economists were off by a factor of four, which in Britain is roughly the gap between "bring a brolly" and "the shed is now in the next county."

The culprit was sunshine. Unseasonably warm weather crushed online sales of autumn and winter wear, so clothing and footwear stores fell 0.9% and online retail slid 2.2%. Nobody buys a duffel coat while sweating. The British jumper is less a garment than a forecast you wear, and in September the forecast said no.

Supermarkets dipped 0.4%, partly because their clothing ranges didn't sell either. Only Britain could produce that sentence: the grocery slump was caused by trousers. Household goods fell 0.5%, meaning the nation's kettles are now being replaced strictly on compassionate grounds.

Only two things went up. Department stores rose 0.2%, proving that somewhere in the kingdom a pensioner is still buying tea towels out of loyalty to 1987. And motor fuel volumes jumped 2.2%, even though pump prices hit record highs. A Briton will not buy a scarf, but he will fill the tank, because petrol is the last luxury that doesn't come in a size.

Take the fuel out and sales slumped 0.7%. Without petrol, the high street is just a car park with feelings.

Then the mood data arrived. A separate survey found consumer confidence suffered its sharpest monthly fall since early in the Covid pandemic. Leave out the pandemic and the last drop that size followed the June 2016 Brexit vote. The nation's morale is now measured against a plague and a referendum, which is how you know the economists have put down the charts and picked up the tissues.

"October's sharp fall in consumer confidence and the dip in retail sales volumes in September show that times are getting tougher for households just as the all-important festive period for retailers is just around the corner," said Paul Dales of Capital Economics. Christmas is coming, and the goose is checking its pension.

Thomas Pugh of RSM UK warned the figures raise "the risk that the economy's recent run of resilience might be coming to an end." In British economics, resilience means people kept shopping out of spite. Spite, it turns out, also has a budget.

Speaking of which, Chancellor John Healey delivers his next week. Pantheon Macroeconomics said it was unclear whether budget worries caused the drop. Households know. When the Treasury is about to speak, you hide the biscuits.

Not everyone is crying. Tesco, Sainsbury's, Greggs and Kingfisher all recently upgraded their profit guidance. The sausage roll remains the one British asset that has never needed a bailout.

So the September verdict is in. Britain was too warm to buy a coat, too nervous to buy a sofa, and too stubborn to stop buying petrol. When the cold finally arrives, the country will be ready: no coat, a full tank, and the engine running for warmth.